Flash Alert: Thursday 29th August
BTC/USDT traded at a high of $9,724 today before plunging $404 to $9,320. BTC/USDT struggled to make a proper recovery, and for the rest of the day traded between $9,400 and $9,500. As a matter of fact, at the time of writing BTC/USDT was trading at $9,495.83;
Bitcoin bearishness is likely to intensify
- As a brief reminder, in yesterday’s Flash Alert we had mentioned that breaching the 90-day EMA suggests Bitcoin is likely to suffer further selling pressure and at the time we were eyeing the $9,555 – $9,400 levels, which is roughly in line with the current price range of BTC/USDT today;
- We also pointed out that if BTC/USDT breaches $9,400 will see the price descend even further to $9,165 – $9,060 and if support does not re-emerge at those levels then we will see further declines to $8,760 – $8,567;
- The breaching of the 90-day EMA on the daily chart today is a bearish sign and it typically suggests that further declines are in store. If BTC/USDT breaches today’s low of $9,320 over the next 24-48 hours we will most likely see sharp declines towards the levels identified above;
- In the meantime, the MACD (12,26,9) remains bearish on the daily chart;
But not before a short-term price rebound
- Given the magnitude of today’s decline we are most likely going to see BTC/USDT enjoy a temporary reprieve over the next 24-48 hours. This means it is entirely possible over this period to see the price of BTC/USDT rebound to the $9,590 -$9,850 area. Once the price reaches this range we expect momentum to slow, and at that point it is possible to see BTC/USDT switch back into bearish mode and resume its decent;
- In the meantime, the Stochastic RSI (14,14,3,3) is bearish on the daily chart although it is also appearing oversold. This typically suggest a price rebound may be forthcoming;
- We also note the price of BTC/USDT is trading at the lower Bollinger Band on our chart, which reinforces the view that there may be some sort of a rebound over the next 24-48 hours.
There is still some hope for Bitcoin as the bullish uptrend that started in February remains intact so far
- Despite recent moves, the overall bullish trend that had started in Q1 of this year remains intact. As long as the price of BTC/USDT remains above the 180-day EMA there is still hope for Bitcoin to reach new highs;
- Also, let’s remember that Bitcoin’s block rewards are due to halve in May 2020. We have observed that historically Bitcoin tends to exhibit a strong rally 6 months prior to the halving date – and that coincides with October/November 2019 – which is just around the corner;
- Anyone interested in our observation of the Litecoin and Bitcoin historical price reaction to the halving of their block rewards may read the post here.
- A follow up post to this Flash Alert may be found here.