All of my commentaries begin by framing the broader macroeconomic landscape, since global liquidity, market sentiment, and risk appetite directly shape crypto market behaviour. This week is no exception — with the Fed, Big Tech earnings, and geopolitical developments all in sharp focus.
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Macro Overview
Global markets are entering a decisive week. The Federal Reserve’s October 28–29 meeting is widely expected to deliver a 25 bps rate cut, marking a potential policy pivot after months of cautious messaging. With parts of the U.S. government shutdown delaying key economic data, traders are leaning more heavily on private indicators and forward guidance from the Fed.
U.S. equities extended their record run last week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing at new highs. The rally was powered by softer inflation data and continued strength in the earnings season.
The “Magnificent Seven” — Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA) — again dominated index performance, reinforcing the heavy concentration risk in mega-cap tech.
Financials also caught a bid as easing inflation lifted expectations for lower rates, while fears around U.S. regional banks eased.
Oil prices remain supported by supply concerns, whereas gold and miners have softened as investors rotate toward risk assets.
This Week’s Focus
As at the time of writing, U.S. futures are pointing higher (Dow +200–300 pts; S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 +0.7–1.1%), supported by rate-cut optimism and anticipation of a constructive Trump–Xi meeting later this week in South Korea, where both leaders are expected to discuss extending the existing trade truce.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are both trading firmer, with ETH slightly outperforming. At the time of writing:
- BTC: $115,500 (+2%)
- ETH: $4,165 (+3%)
ETH’s relative strength is reflected in the ETH/BTC ratio (~0.036), suggesting a modest broadening of the rally beyond Bitcoin.
BTC Dominance currently sits near 58%, signalling that while altcoins are participating, Bitcoin remains the primary driver of market sentiment.
Key Economic Events (Week of 27 Oct 2025)
| Date | Data/Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, 28 Oct | U.S. House Price Index, Consumer Confidence | Housing health, sentiment |
| Wed, 29 Oct | FOMC Rate Decision, Press Conference | Policy pivot confirmation |
| Thu, 30 Oct | Jobless Claims, GDP, Trump–Xi Meeting | Trade tone and growth snapshot |
| Fri, 31 Oct | PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, Factory Orders | Inflation gauge and consumer trends |
Some economic releases may be delayed due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The market is therefore focused on corporate earnings and Fed communication as the primary sentiment drivers.
Earnings Spotlight
This is the busiest week of Q3 earnings season, featuring reports from five of the Magnificent Seven and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B). In total, 173 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report — including Boeing (BA), Kraft Heinz (KHC), ServiceNow (NOW), Merck (MRK), Mastercard (MA), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) — spanning key sectors such as technology, industrials, healthcare, and energy.
Investors will scrutinise these results for signals on:
- Corporate resilience amid higher rates and slowing global demand.
- AI and cloud capex trends, which have become leading indicators for broader risk appetite.
- Margin guidance, which often influences short-term liquidity cycles — and, by extension, crypto market sentiment.
My take:
If Big Tech delivers robust earnings and maintains high AI investment guidance, risk assets (including crypto) could stay well supported. But any disappointment in capex growth or AI monetisation could trigger another bout of short-term de-risking across both equities and crypto.
Macro-to-Crypto Transmission Explained
- Rates ↓ → Liquidity ↑ → Risk appetite ↑ → Favours BTC and large-cap alts.
- Dollar ↓ tends to support crypto via weaker USD liquidity pressure.
- ETH/BTC rising → signals rotation into altcoins and broader market participation.
- BTC.D rising → indicates a BTC-led move with limited altcoin breadth.
Crypto remains highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity conditions, and this week’s FOMC outcome could set the tone for November trading behaviour.
Final Thoughts
Despite policy uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to display resilience, underpinned by strong corporate earnings and improving consumer confidence. The combination of a dovish Fed, steady labour market data, and potential trade détente could sustain near-term risk-on sentiment — though geopolitical risk and fiscal gridlock remain wild cards.
